Trump Leads Biden in 2024 Poll as Gender Split Emerges

Former President Donald Trump is leading Biden by 4 points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. The survey, conducted among 1,961 registered voters from April 24-25, shows Trump with 48% support compared to Biden's 43% in a two-way race.

The poll also reveals a notable gender divide, with more men (44%) supporting Trump and more women (38%) backing Biden. In a three-way race that includes Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump maintains his lead with 44% support, while Biden garners 38%, and Kennedy receives 12%.

Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed concern about the potential impact of Kennedy's candidacy on the race. Trump has lashed out against Kennedy, accusing him of entering the race to help Biden, while Kennedy has fired back, calling Trump "unhinged."

Why this matters: The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a tight contest, with the country's near-parity between Republicans and Democrats. A potential shift of just 5% of Trump voters could be decisive, especially in key battleground states.

Despite Trump's legal troubles, including criminal charges and lawsuits, voters appear to be more concerned about the economy and Biden's performance than Trump's legal issues. Experts attribute this to Trump's ability to portray the charges as politically motivated and his effectiveness in persuading enough people to keep him competitive with Biden.

The Democratic National Committee has established a team to counter the influence of third-party candidates like Kennedy, recognizing the potential threat they pose to Biden's re-election chances. As the race continues to unfold, the gender split and the impact of third-party candidates will be closely watched by both campaigns.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, conducted online within the United States, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. As the 2024 election approaches, the tight race between Trump and Biden, along with the emerging gender divide and the influence of third-party candidates, will continue to shape the political landscape and capture the nation's attention.

Key Takeaways

• Trump leads Biden by 4 points in hypothetical 2024 matchup.
• Gender divide: More men support Trump, more women back Biden.
• In 3-way race, Trump maintains lead with 44% support.
• Experts attribute Trump's competitiveness to portraying charges as political.
• DNC establishes team to counter influence of third-party candidates.