Israel and Hezbollah Close to Deal as Militia Faces Challenges

Israel and Hezbollah are nearing an agreement that would see the Iran-backed terrorist group retreat from Israel's northern border, allowing evacuated Israeli civilians to return home, according to Channel 12. The deal, brokered by the US, is similar to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 war between the two sides.

Why this matters: A potential deal between Israel and Hezbollah could have significant implications for regional stability, as it would address a long-standing point of tension and potentially pave the way for further diplomatic efforts. Moreover, the success of this deal could also impact the broader dynamics of the Middle East, influencing the behavior of other Iran-backed militias and the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The resolution requires Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, a stipulation that has been increasingly violated in recent years. As part of the deal, a hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas is needed to restore calm in Gaza. US envoy Amos Hochstein has played a key role in the negotiations.

Israeli officials believe the US-brokered deal is the only viable option, viewing France's separate mediation efforts as counterproductive and driven by a desire to showcase diplomatic clout. The situation has been ongoing since October, with northern Israeli communities evacuated and residents unable to return.

Experts say Hezbollah finds itself in a challenging position. The Militia Spotlight platform, co-founded by Michael Knights and Hamdi Malik, provides detailed analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias. Since October 2023, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) has claimed attacks against US and allied targets, with an increasing mix of claims by newer groups and unclaimed attacks since October 26.

The IRI is a collective mechanism for existing US-designated terrorist organizations like Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba to claim attacks. Some recent strikes in Iraq and Syria have gone unclaimed, likely because they were carried out by Iran-linked Syrian Arab militias against Syrian Democratic Forces bases.

Several drone and rocket incidents targeting US and Israeli sites have occurred in 2024, including a January 30 Sammad-type drone crash near Altun Kupri with an explosive warhead, a January 29 truck loaded with rockets found aimed at the Rmelan Landing Zone, and January drone launches at Erbil airport, some intercepted or crashing.

Abu Ala al-Walai, leader of the Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada militia, announced the start of a second phase of Iraqi resistance operations in solidarity with Hamas, vowing to blockade Israeli maritime traffic and ports. The overall situation points to significant but imperfect coordination among the Iran-backed groups using the IRI brand.

The potential Israel-Hezbollah deal, if successful, would mark a major development in the long-running conflict. However, Hezbollah and its allies continue to pose a threat, as evidenced by the ongoing attacks and provocative statements from militia leaders. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the proposed agreement can bring much-needed stability to the region.

Key Takeaways

• Israel and Hezbollah near deal to end northern border tensions, brokered by the US.
• Deal requires Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and a hostage exchange with Hamas.
• US envoy Amos Hochstein played a key role in negotiations, while French efforts are seen as counterproductive.
• Hezbollah faces challenges, with imperfect coordination among Iran-backed groups using the IRI brand.
• A successful deal could bring stability to the region, but ongoing attacks and threats remain a concern.