El Niño-Induced Droughts Strain Agriculture and Water Supply

The 2024 summer season is experiencing diverse rainfall patterns due to El Niño-induced droughts, which are disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers and straining water supplies from California to western Canada. The north-south split typical of El Niño winters is playing out in water supply and runoff forecasts across the region.

Why this matters: The impact of El Niño-induced droughts on agriculture and water supply has significant implications for food security and economic stability, particularly for vulnerable communities. As the frequency and severity of droughts increase due to climate change, it is essential to develop and implement effective strategies for managing water resources and supporting smallholder farmers.

California relies on snowpack for hydroelectric generation as well as 30% of its water needs, typically accumulating most of its snow in a 90-day window from December to February. "Typically, California watersheds reach their peak snowmelt flow in May,"said Jason Ince, California Department of Water Resources spokesperson. "Each time we have a cold, wet weekend, this will temporarily slow down the snowmelt runoff,"Ince added.

Meanwhile, the water supply picture continues to look bleak across the northern portion of the Columbia River basin, following another month of below-average precipitation across most of Washington and northern Idaho. The forecast for water volumes at The Dalles Dam from April through September dropped by 1 percentage point since April 3 to 80% of average. April's precipitation was also below or near average in British Columbia, where snowpack provides much of the Columbia Basin's summer water supply.

Hydro generation on the CAISO grid for April peaked at 5,371 MW on April 22. The U.S. Drought Monitor reported on May 2 that drought conditions have remained mostly unchanged across the West, with small patches of D0 or abnormally dry conditions in four California counties: San Bernardino, Riverside, Modoc, and Siskiyou.

"Our research shows we will continue to see wetter wet periods along with drier dry periods," said Tim Skarupa, senior manager of SRP watershed management. The El Niño-induced droughts are not only affecting water supply forecasts but also having a significant impact on agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers who are disproportionately affected by the diverse rainfall patterns this summer season.

Key Takeaways

• El Niño-induced droughts affect water supply and agriculture in Western US and Canada.
• California reservoirs store above-average water, but snowpack is below average.
• Northern Columbia River basin faces water supply shortage due to low precipitation.
• Drought conditions remain unchanged across the West, with some areas experiencing dryness.
• Smallholder farmers are disproportionately affected by El Niño-induced droughts.