UN Warns Heavy Rains in Somalia Could Displace 770,000 and Increase Cholera Risk

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has issued a warning that the anticipated heavier-than-normal Gu rains and subsequent floods in 22 districts of Somalia are projected to impact approximately 770,000 people from April to June 2023. The Gu season has already commenced in most regions of the country, with some areas experiencing heavy rainfall, though no flash or riverine flooding has been reported thus far.

Humanitarians have developed a plan to mitigate the anticipated impact of the Gu rains but require urgent resources to ensure a timely response. OCHA has 51 boats on standby to facilitate the evacuation of individuals and the delivery of aid in critical locations along the Shabelle and Juba rivers. "Humanitarians have developed a plan to mitigate the anticipated impact of the Gu rains, but require urgent resources to ensure a timely response," the UN agency stated.

The heavy rains are expected to trigger cholera outbreaks in areas where the disease has not been observed in years. OCHA has teamed up with partners and Somalian health authorities to step up response and preparedness activities, guided by a six-month plan of action that requires $5.9 million to implement.

Why this matters: The potential displacement of 770,000 people and increased risk of cholera outbreaks emphasize the pressing need for humanitarian assistance and resources in Somalia. The situation highlights the vulnerability of communities in the face of extreme weather events and the importance of proactive measures to mitigate their impact.

The Gu rains have intensified since April 19, leading to flash floods that have killed four people, destroyed about 100 shelters for displaced individuals, and affected or displaced at least 134 families (804 people) across the country. The River Shabelle level has risen to high risk in Jowhar district, and river breakages have caused localized flooding. Moderate to heavy rains are projected to continue in several areas, while very heavy rains are expected in Bay, Sool, and Sanaag regions.

The humanitarian crisis in Somalia continues to unfold, with the recent El Niño floods forcing 1.2 million people to leave their homes and settle in overcrowded IDP sites, leading to a lack of dignified living conditions. The situation is further exacerbated by the continuing drought, with communities across northern and central regions expressing concerns. "The heavy rains are expected to worsen the current AWD/cholera outbreak, which has already affected at least 7,200 cases with 75 deaths since January," OCHA warned. Immediate requirements for the response are estimated at $10.7 million.

Key Takeaways

• OCHA warns of heavy Gu rains affecting 770,000 people in Somalia from April-June 2023.
• Humanitarians have a plan but need urgent resources to ensure a timely response.
• Heavy rains expected to trigger cholera outbreaks in areas not affected in years.
• Recent floods have already displaced 1.2 million people, exacerbating the ongoing drought.
• Immediate response requirements estimated at $10.7 million to address the humanitarian crisis.