FAO Warns of Sharp Decline in Southern Africa Cereal Production Amid Drought

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a serious warning about a significant drop in cereal production in Southern Africa due to widespread rainfall deficits and record high temperatures. The agency reports that this decline is intensifying food insecurity for approximately 16 million people across Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe.

According to the FAO, cereal production in the region is expected to decrease sharply compared to the previous year, further exacerbating an already precarious food security situation in the affected countries. "This is a concerning development that requires urgent attention and response from the international community to address the growing humanitarian crisis in Southern Africa," the FAO stated.

The Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC) found that over 282 million people in 59 countries and territories suffered from acute food insecurity in 2023, a staggering increase of 24 million from the prior year. The main drivers behind this acute hunger are conflict, extreme weather events, and economic shocks, which often reinforce each other and worsen the situation.

Why this matters: The sharp decline in cereal production in Southern Africa threatens to push millions more into severe food insecurity in a region already grappling with the impacts of climate change, economic challenges, and conflict. Urgent international support and interventions are needed to avert a full-blown humanitarian crisis and protect vulnerable populations.

The disappointing forecast comes as white maize, a staple food in the subregion, accounts for nearly 20% of calories consumed. Food prices are already rising at annual rates above 10% and are likely to climb even higher, with traditional maize exporters South Africa and Zambia unable to cover the supply shortfall. The governments of Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have declared drought emergencies in response to the worsening situation.

In Namibia, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Land Reform released a report warning that national cereal production is expected to decrease by 53% to 72,150 metric tons, with the commercial sector hit particularly hard with a 68% drop in production. The report highlights the devastating impact on households, especially in southern, eastern, western, and central areas, as depleted food stocks force reliance on market purchases and drought-relief assistance.

The FAO has emphasized the urgent need to increase resilience-bolstering measures to enable farmers to prepare for the next agricultural season. "Forecasts point to a high likelihood of a transition to a La Niña phase later in the year with more beneficial precipitation patterns," the agency noted, stressing the importance of proactive interventions to mitigate the drought's impact on food production and support affected communities.

Key Takeaways

• FAO warns of sharp decline in cereal production in Southern Africa due to rainfall deficits.
• Food insecurity intensifying for 16 million people across 6 countries in the region.
• Global acute food insecurity increased by 24 million people in 2023 due to conflict, weather, and economic shocks.
• Urgent international support needed to avert a humanitarian crisis in Southern Africa.
• FAO calls for resilience-building measures to mitigate drought's impact on food production.