South Asia Braces for Heavy Monsoon Rains and Economic Impact

South Asian countries, including Nepal, are preparing for above-normal monsoon rains during the upcoming season, according to forecasts from the 28th Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum. The monsoon, which typically begins on June 13 and ends on October 2, is a critical period for the region's farm sector, delivering nearly 80% of the rain needed by farms and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.

Why this matters: The monsoon season has a significant impact on the economy and food security of South Asian countries, and above-normal rainfall can lead to increased agricultural productivity and reduced food inflation. Moreover, the effects of the monsoon season can have far-reaching consequences for the region's population, including rural incomes, consumer spending, and overall economic growth.

For Nepal, the forecast brings hope for its farm-dependent economy, which accounts for nearly 25% of the country's GDP and employs over 60% of the population. Hem Raj Regmi, deputy chief statistician at the National Statistics Office, noted, "A normal or above normal monsoon results in a bountiful harvest, which lifts rural incomes and boosts spending on consumer goods."

Experts predict that the above-normal monsoon will acceleratecrop transplantationrates, leading to high yields and a potential drop in food inflation. The monsoon also plays a vital role in recharging groundwater levels and water reservoirs, which are crucial for power generation. However, Sunil Pokharel, spokesperson at the Meteorological Forecasting Division, cautioned that excess rain can be disastrous for Nepal, causing landslides, floods, and damage to life, property, infrastructure, and the environment.

Nepal's agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.05% this fiscal year, and the economy, heavily dependent on agricultural output, is expected to grow by 3.87%. Summer crops, mainly paddy, are the major income source for more than half of the population, with paddy alone accounting for 5% of Nepal's GDP. Last year, despite the El Niño phenomenon, Nepali farmers harvested a record 5.72 million tonnes of paddy, up 4.33%.

This year, South Asian meteorologists predict that La Niña conditions will develop over the equatorial Pacific during the second half of the southwest monsoon season, which is generally associated with normal to above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall over most parts of South Asia. As the region prepares for the monsoon, countries are closely monitoring weather patterns and their potential impact on agriculture, the economy, and the lives of millions of people.

Key Takeaways

• South Asian countries, including Nepal, expect above-normal monsoon rains this season.
• Above-normal rainfall can boost agricultural productivity and reduce food inflation.
• Nepal's farm-dependent economy may see a growth of 3.87% this fiscal year.
• La Niña conditions are expected to develop during the monsoon season, bringing normal to above-normal rainfall.
• Excess rain can cause landslides, floods, and damage to life, property, and infrastructure.