Iran Denies Responsibility for October Attack After Revolutionary Guard Claim

Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders claimed that Iran was behind the October 7 attack, but Tehran quickly denied the statement. The attack appeared to be in retaliation for a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy's compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders, including two generals.

The Iranian attack was highly choreographed, with Tehran announcing the start of its operation 'Honest Promise' shortly after the drones were launched and even before they reached Israel. State-run media broadcast live footage of people celebrating the attack, likely aimed at Iran's domestic audience. However, the U.S. has since imposed more sanctions on Iran, designating four individuals and two companies involved in malicious cyber activity targeting U.S. companies and government entities.

According to Mojtaba Abtahi, an advisor to the Iranian Interior Minister, no government official opposed the decision to directly retaliate against Israel for its suspected attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. This indicates a dangerous degree of groupthink within the Iranian leadership. Abtahi also claims that after the attack, the Swiss ambassador was summoned to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' headquarters, instead of the Foreign Ministry, to receive the Iranian government's message for the United States, suggesting the marginalization of Foreign Ministry professionals.

Why this matters: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have entered a new phase in their ongoing shadow war. The direct attacks and retaliations risk further military escalation in the region, with potential consequences for regional stability and international relations.

The attack on the Iranian military base in Isfahan, carried out by Israel using missiles that breached Iran's air defense system, exposed vulnerabilities in Iran's aerial defenses despite claims of advanced capabilities. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has directed the military to prioritize innovation in armaments and tactics, as well as understanding the enemy's strategies, amid tension with Israel to enhance Iran's air defense system and support its proxy forces. As Abtahi indicated, the retaliation was also meant to boost the morale of the Iranian public and rally support around the regime, even among those who oppose it.

Key Takeaways

• Iran denied involvement in Oct 7 attack, but later claimed responsibility.
• The attack was retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus.
• Iran's retaliation was aimed at boosting domestic support for the regime.
• The attack exposed vulnerabilities in Iran's air defense system despite claims of advanced capabilities.
• Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel risk further military escalation in the region.