Serbia Balances Economic Ties with EU While Aligning with China and Russia

Serbia finds itself in a delicate balancing act, economically dependent on the European Union while simultaneously pledging allegiance to China and Russia, according to a recent analysis. The country's strong economic ties with the EU are evident, as it relies heavily on the bloc for trade and investment. However, Serbia has also been actively cultivating closer political and economic relations with China and Russia, raising concerns about its commitment to the EU.

The analysis suggests that Serbia's balancing act between the EU, China, and Russia is driven by its desire to maintain good relations with all three powers and maximize its economic and political benefits. Serbia's economic reliance on the EU is significant, with trade between old and new EU member states growing substantially during the pre-accession process. The potential economic benefits of EU enlargement, including increased GDP, job creation, and contributions to the EU's energy and food security goals, are also highlighted.

Why this matters: Serbia's balancing act between the EU, China, and Russia has significant implications for the country's future trajectory and its relationship with the European Union. The tension between Serbia's economic dependence on the EU and its political alignment with China and Russia underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region.

The upcoming high-profile visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Europe, including stops in Hungary and Serbia, will allow Beijing to showcase its influence in Central and Eastern Europe. The visit to Serbia is particularly significant as it coincides with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade and the opening of a new expansive Chinese cultural center in the country.

The analysis also notes Russia's richest man, Vladimir Potanin, announcing plans to launch a new mineral venture in China, likely in response to Western sanctions on Russia's mineral industry. Additionally, an incident involving the Chinese Embassy in Georgia's website using a photo of a Russian landmark in its welcome banner, which was later removed, is mentioned.

The EU faces the challenge of rethinking its economic resilience and strategic supply chains, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The analysis suggests that EU accession candidates, such as Serbia, can play an important role in achieving these goals. However, the high costs of bringing poorer and more agrarian countries like Ukraine into the EU are acknowledged.

The analysis underscores the complex geopolitical landscape in which Serbia finds itself, navigating between its economic dependence on the EU and its growing ties with China and Russia. As Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated, "Serbia is on the European path, but it is also a country that has traditional ties and relations with the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China." The country's ability to balance these competing interests will be crucial in shaping its future direction and relationship with the EU.

Key Takeaways

• Serbia balances ties with EU, China, and Russia, driven by economic interests.
• Serbia's EU trade and investment ties are significant, but it also cultivates China, Russia links.
• Upcoming Xi Jinping visit to Europe showcases China's influence in Central/Eastern Europe.
• EU faces challenges of economic resilience, supply chains amid Serbia's balancing act.
• Serbia's ability to balance competing interests will shape its EU relationship trajectory.