Armenian PM's Policies Seen as Enabling Azerbaijan and Turkey's Takeover

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government is viewed as a guarantee for Azerbaijan and Turkey to take over Armenia, according toYerevan-based strategist Varuzhan Geghamyan. In a recent interview, Pashinyan proposed a new formula for Armenia's existence, where Azerbaijan and "Ilham Aliyev's goodwill" would serve as the guarantors of Armenia's security, rather than the Armenian army.

Why this matters: This development has significant implications for regional security and the balance of power in the South Caucasus, as it could lead to a shift in the geopolitical landscape. If Armenia's sovereignty is compromised, it may embolden other regional powers to pursue similar aggressive actions, potentially destabilizing the entire region.

Pashinyan stated, "We have to admit this: we are unfair to our army and our soldiers because we place the burden on our soldiers one by one." He argued that the Armenian army is not capable of being a guarantor of Armenia's security and that "Legitimacy is the best guarantor—better than a good guarantor."

The political implications of Pashinyan's statement suggest that Armenia should seek security within the region, primarily with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and surrender to their demands to build a legitimate state border line. However, Geghamyan argues that this formula has already failed, citing Azerbaijan's rejection of Pashinyan's proposal to "reproduce" the border between Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan.

Geghamyan emphasized that Armenia has become more vulnerable since 2022, allowing Turkey and Azerbaijan to take advantage of the situation. He referenced a statement by former Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who said that now is the time to "get the most out of Armenia." Geghamyan warned that the recent events in Tavush are just a prelude to a larger operation to surrender territories.

The Armenian government's decision to cede contentious border areas to Azerbaijan has sparked protests from residents of nearby villages. The move has been denounced by Armenia's leading anti-corruption watchdog and human rights groups, who claim it is illegal and dangerous for residents. They argue that the planned handover violates the Armenian constitution and laws, and does not commit Azerbaijan to recognizing Armenia's territorial integrity or withdrawing from seized territory.

Prime Minister Pashinyan has defended the concessions, citing the risk of another war with Azerbaijan if they are not made. However, critics question who would repel Azerbaijan's new attacks and which international community would come to Armenia's aid. Geghamyan concludes that Pashinyan's actions have led to Armenia having less geopolitical weight and less security than it had before the 2020 war.

Key Takeaways

• Armenian PM Pashinyan proposes Azerbaijan and Turkey as guarantors of Armenia's security, not the Armenian army.
• This could lead to a shift in regional power balance and compromise Armenia's sovereignty.
• Pashinyan's plan is seen as surrendering to Turkey and Azerbaijan's demands, sparking protests and criticism.
• Armenia's government is ceding border areas to Azerbaijan, violating the constitution and laws.
• Critics argue Pashinyan's actions have reduced Armenia's geopolitical weight and security.