Chad Braces for Pivotal Election as Deby Seeks Legitimacy

On May 6, 2024, Chad will hold a presidential election that could shape the future of the strategically important Sahel nation. The vote marks the first attempt by a coup-hit state in Central and West Africa to transition from military rule to democracy through the ballot box. Mahamat Idriss Deby, the 40-year-old interim president who seized power after his father's death in 2021, is widely expected to win.

Why this matters: The outcome of this election will have significant implications for Chad's stability and democratic future, as well as the balance of power in the Sahel region. A successful transition to democracy could set a precedent for other countries in the region, while a flawed election could lead to furtherrisk, post, transition, instability.

Chad, a former French colony, is the last Sahel country witha substantial French military presence, making it a crucial location in the battle for influence between the West and Russia in the region. Deby has met with both French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscoring Chad's strategic position. The election is being closely watched by Chad's Western allies, who are pushing for stability and seeking to maintain their influence.

Opposition groups are crying foul, alleging that Deby's government has postponed elections and manipulated the process to ensure his victory. Human rights concerns are growing in Chad, one of the poorest countries in the world, where around 50 civilians were killed in protests and opposition figure Yaya Dillo was shot and killed. Some opposition parties and civil society groups are calling for a boycott of the vote, citing Deby's control of key institutions and potential influence over the process.

The election has characteristics of previous contests in 2011, 2016, and 2021, with the urban opposition having little support in rural areas, where 76% of Chadians live. The transition, initially scheduled to last 18 months, has gone on for more than three years, with the African Union not sanctioning Chad for the unconstitutional change of power. Pressure on the opposition has increased in recent months, and the new electoral code has raised concerns about want, change, prepares, vote, presidential, electi.

The transition began with hopes of a change of power after three decades of authoritarian rule dominated by the Deby family. Mahamat Deby showed signs of democratic openness, initiating negotiations with the opposition and civil society, and allowing several long-time dissident activists to return to the country. However, the transition has not achieved its objectives, with the opposition pointing out that the Constitutional Council sought to eliminate potential competition in Mahamat Deby's electoral strongholds.

As Chadians prepare to cast their ballots, the country faces significant challenges, including a cost-of-living crisis, worsening security, and a refugee influx from neighboring countries. Gali Doubaye, an unemployed man in N'Djamena, says Chad needs peace and change, emphasizing the need for a transparent election. Vincent Payang, a teacher in the capital, notes that Chad is "at a crossroads" between Western and Russian influence, and that only God can bring about change.

The election marks the end of the political transition, and its outcome will have significant implications for Chad's stability and democratic future. Post-election protests are possible, but the threat of police repression could dissuade many people from taking to the streets. As Chad navigates this pivotal moment, the international community will be watching closely to see if the country can break free from its history of authoritarian rule and charta new path forward.

Key Takeaways

• Chad to hold presidential election on May 6, 2024, marking a transition from military rule to democracy.
• Interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby expected to win, but opposition groups cry foul over election manipulation.
• Election outcome crucial for Chad's stability, democratic future, and regional balance of power.
• Human rights concerns grow as opposition figures face violence and repression.
• International community watches closely, seeking stability and influence in the strategic Sahel region.