Milanović's Surprise Victory Upends Croatia's Political Landscape

The results of Croatia's highly contested parliamentary election on Wednesday have dealt a blow to the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party, as the opposition leader Zoran Milanović and his center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) secured an unexpected victory. While HDZ won the most seats with 61 out of 151, they fell short of the majority needed to stay in power. Milanović's SDP came in second with 42 seats.

The election outcome has left neither Milanović nor HDZ leader and current Prime Minister Andrej Plenković with a clear path to forming a majority government. Milanović, who currently serves as Croatia's president, had made a surprise bid for the premiership last month, a move that was deemed irreconcilable with his duties as head of state. The far-right Homeland Movement party emerged as a potential kingmaker, winning 14 seats.

In a statement following the results, Milanović said the election showed the will of the Croatian people to oppose corruption, crime, and inequality. "Two-thirds of the votes went to parties opposed to corruption, crime, and inequality," he declared. "Only someone who can put together a 76-seat majority in parliament can lead the government."

Plenković, whose HDZ party has struggled to shake off accusations of corruption that have lingered for over a decade, claimed that his party has the electoral mandate. However, he acknowledged that discussions are already underway to form a new governing majority. A potential path to a majority for Plenković could involve a coalition with the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement, but this carries the risk of alienating centrist voters.

The election results reflect a complex political landscape in Croatia, with voters not being as unhappy with the status quo as the opposition has claimed, but also strengthening parties on the right and left. The high voter turnout and the surge in support for Milanović's SDP and other opposition parties suggest a desire for change among a significant portion of the electorate.

Why this matters: The outcome of Croatia's parliamentary election could have implications for European Union unity over aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Milanović has been critical of EU policies regarding the war in Ukraine, and a potential coalition led by his SDP party could push Croatia closer to a group of EU nations, including Hungary and Slovakia, that have taken a more pro-Russian stance.

The election was seen as a test of popularity for the conservatives before the upcoming European Parliament election in June. As coalition talks get underway, the clash between Croatia's main political leaders has fueled tensions in the country. Prime Minister Plenković said, "The Croatian Democratic Union has already started talks with potential coalition partners," but offered no further details.

Key Takeaways

• Croatia's ruling HDZ party lost majority, faces coalition talks
• Opposition leader Milanović's SDP secured unexpected victory, 2nd most seats
• Far-right Homeland Movement emerged as potential kingmaker with 14 seats
• Election outcome could impact Croatia's stance on Ukraine war, EU relations
• Formation of new government will determine Croatia's domestic, foreign policies