UK Election Model Predicts Conservative Loss, But May Underestimate Tactical Voting Impact

A UK election prediction model suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, the Conservative Party would suffer a defeat. However, the model may be undervaluing the influence of tactical voting by an increasing number of Labour-Liberal Democrat crossover voters.

Sir Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, expressed confidence in his party's performance in the upcoming local elections on May 2, stating that they could make gains from the Conservatives in several 'Blue Wall' seats. Davey believes that the local election results could serve as a springboard for the party's national campaign, building on their recent successes in Westminster by-elections.

The Liberal Democrats have their sights set on the Esher and Walton parliamentary seat, currently held by former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab. Davey suggested that lifelong Conservative voters in the constituency are considering voting for the Liberal Democrats this time around.

Why this matters: The potential impact of tactical voting by Labour-Liberal Democrat crossover voters could significantly influence the outcome of the next UK general election. The Conservative Party's declining support and the Liberal Democrats' growing momentum in traditional Tory strongholds may reshape the political landscape.

Polling data paints a dire picture for the Conservatives, with the party trailing Labour by a significant margin and little chance of closing the gap before the general election. Support for the Conservatives has collapsed across various voter groups, including the 'Red Wall' and 'Blue Wall' regions, as well as among traditional Tory supporters.

The latest Ipsos UK poll shows the Conservative Party reaching a new record low in support, with just 19% of respondents saying they would back the Tories. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's personal satisfaction rating has also fallen to a historic low of minus 59, on par with John Major's all-time record and only one point above Jeremy Corbyn's minus 60 in 2019.

With the Conservatives facing the prospect of losing a significant number of seats, Sunak has little option but to brace for impact. His political future remains uncertain as the party struggles to regain voter confidence. As one Conservative strategist put it, "We're in for an absolute hammering in the locals. At this point, it's about damage limitation and hoping we can turn things around before the general election."

Key Takeaways

• UK election model predicts Conservative defeat if election held now
• Lib Dems confident of gains in 'Blue Wall' seats in local elections
• Tactical voting by Labour-Lib Dem voters may reshape political landscape
• Conservatives trail Labour by significant margin, support collapsing
• Conservatives face 'absolute hammering' in local elections, damage control