D Gukesh Regains Shared Lead in Candidates Chess Tournament as Praggnanandhaa and Gujrathi's Chances Diminish

In round 12 of the FIDE Candidates 2024 chess tournament in Toronto, Indian Grandmaster D Gukesh regained a share of the lead with Hikaru Nakamura and Ian Nepomniachtchi, all with 7.5 points. Gukesh defeated Azerbaijan's Nijat Abasov, while Nakamura beat Firouza Alireza of France. Nepomniachtchi drew with R. Praggnanandhaa, who along with Vidit Gujrathi have diminishing chances of finishing on the podium with just two rounds remaining.

The tournament has now turned into a three-way race, with Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura, and Gukesh leading the way. Fabiano Caruana remains in contention, standing a half point behind the leaders at 7 points. The upcoming Round 13 matchup between Nepomniachtchi and Nakamura is anticipated to be a critical one in determining the tournament's outcome.

Nakamura has been on a hot streak, scoring three consecutive wins in rounds 10-12, and has collected the most wins so far in the event. Gukesh has suffered only one loss, while Nepomniachtchi is the only participant to remain undefeated. Gukesh has a chance to take the lead in Round 13 against Alireza Firouzja, but faces a tougher challenge in the final round against Nakamura. Nepomniachtchi has the toughest run, facing Nakamura and Caruana in the final two rounds.

Why this matters: The FIDE Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship, one of the most prestigious titles in the sport. With Indian prodigy D Gukesh in contention and the tournament reaching a thrilling conclusion, the event has garnered significant attention from chess enthusiasts worldwide.

According to a statistical model, there is a 62.4% chance of a sole winner emerging after Round 14, a 17.1% chance of a two-way tie, and a 20.5% chance of three or more players tying for the top spot. The final two rounds will be played on Saturday and Sunday, and in case of a tie for first place, a rapid and blitz tiebreaker will be played on Monday. As Nepomniachtchi stated after his draw with Praggnanandhaa, "The tournament remains open for the top 4 players on the leaderboard, with Fabiano Caruana just half a point behind the leaders."

Key Takeaways

• Gukesh, Nakamura, and Nepomniachtchi lead the Candidates 2024 tournament with 7.5 points each.
• Caruana remains in contention, standing half a point behind the leaders at 7 points.
• Nakamura is on a hot streak, scoring 3 consecutive wins, while Nepomniachtchi remains undefeated.
• The tournament has a 62.4% chance of a sole winner after Round 14, with a tiebreaker if needed.
• The Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the prestigious World Chess Championship.