IEA Forecasts Surge in Electric Vehicle Sales, Chinese Automakers Dominate Market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts strong electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2024, with global sales projected to reach around 17 million units by the end of the year, a 21% increase from 2023. China is expected to account for nearly 60% of new EV registrations, with sales increasing to about 10 million and EVs making up around 45% of all car sales in the country. "Electric car sales in China are projected to hit 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country," the IEA report states.

In contrast, the IEA projects that roughly one in nine cars sold in the United States will be electric, while in Europe, electric cars are set to represent about one in four cars sold. The report highlights the steady growth in global EV sales, with a 25% increase in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, driven primarily by China. "Global electric car sales are expected to reach around 17 million by the end of 2023, with sales growing about 25% in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2022," according to the IEA.

Chinese automakers, which accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, are increasing their exports and setting up production facilities abroad, contributing to downward pressure on EV purchase prices. The IEA notes that growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers could add to this trend. However, the agency stresses that ensuring the availability of public charging infrastructure is vital for continued EV growth, with the need for a sixfold increase in charging points by 2035 to meet government pledges.

Why this matters: The rapid growth of electric vehicles, driven by Chinese automakers, has major implications for the global auto industry and the transition to cleaner energy. As EVs become more affordable and accessible, they could play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.

The IEA report suggests that intensifying market competition and improving battery technologies will reduce EV prices in the coming years, making them more affordable compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. "Substantial investment in the EV supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declines in the price of EVs and their batteries are expected to drive even more significant changes in the coming years," the IEA states. Under current policy settings, the agency projects that every other car sold globally will be electric by 2035, and two in three cars sold will be electric if countries meet their announced energy and climate pledges.

Key Takeaways

• Global EV sales projected to reach 17M units by 2024, up 21% from 2023.
• China to account for 60% of new EV registrations, with 45% of car sales being EVs.
• US and Europe to see 1 in 9 and 1 in 4 cars sold being electric, respectively.
• Chinese automakers increasing exports, contributing to lower EV purchase prices.
• Substantial EV growth expected by 2035, with 1 in 2 cars sold globally being electric.