Severe Weather Outbreak Threatens Central U.S. Through Weekend

A multi-day severe weather outbreak is forecast for the central United States, with the threat of tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding expected from Thursday, April 25, 2024, through the weekend. The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for parts of eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, central and northern Louisiana, and southeastern and western Illinois.

The severe weather threat will begin on Thursday as a dip in the jet stream approaches the central U.S., leading to the development of an area of low pressure at the surface and showers and thunderstorms. While the day may start tranquil, storms are expected to break through the 'cap' in the early evening, with the potential for intense supercells near the dryline in western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 5 risk for these areas, indicating a significant threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

On Friday, the area of low pressure is expected to reach its peak strength, broadening the risk of damaging storms and tornadoes to more states from Texas to Illinois. Another storm system is forecast to emerge from the West and move into the Plains by Saturday, potentially posing an even more significant risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Why this matters: The severe weather pattern is expected to continue into the following week as the calendar turns to May, which is historically the most active month for tornadoes in the Lower 48 states. The next several weeks could be busy for weather forecasters and pose a significant risk to lives and property across a dozen states.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the dry air to the west of the storms will create a critical risk of fast-moving fires, particularly in western Texas and New Mexico. Flooding is also a concern, with 2 to 4 inches of rain expected across a broad area. "Excessive rainfall is also expected in parts of the region, which could lead to flooding in low-lying communities, urban areas, and areas downstream from large reservoirs or rivers," according to the National Weather Service. Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders, and there could be disruptions to electricity, telecommunications, transportation, and business operations.

Residents and travelers are advised to monitor local media, avoid driving through flooded areas, and be prepared to seek shelter in case of tornado warnings. The National Weather Service Wichita meteorologist Andy Kleinsasser emphasized the importance of having a severe weather action plan and multiple ways to receive critical weather information. "Travelers should stay aware of weather conditions and use radar apps to avoid driving into severe storms," Kleinsasser said.

Key Takeaways

• Severe weather outbreak forecast for central US from April 25-29, 2024.
• Threat of tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding expected.
• Highest risk on Thursday and Friday, with another system arriving Saturday.
• Dry air may also lead to critical fire risk in western TX and NM.
• Residents advised to monitor weather, avoid flooded areas, and have action plan.