Taiwan on High Alert for Potential Chinese Military Drills Following President-Elect Lai's Inauguration

Taiwan is on high alert for potential Chinese military exercises following the inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te on May 20, 2024. China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has a strong dislike of Lai and has rejected his offers of talks. The Taiwanese National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen stated that the period from June to November is when China typically holds its regular military drills, and the bureau is closely monitoring whether China will use this as an excuse to further pressure Taiwan.

China has significantly increased its military activities around Taiwan in recent years, including carrying out major war games after visits by U.S. officials. Taiwan is also concerned that China could use new tactics, such as nighttime joint combat readiness patrols and inflight refueling to extend aircraft operation time near Taiwan, to show its displeasure with Lai's inauguration. Tsai said China has been observed carrying out "joint combat readiness patrols" at night, using inflight refueling to extend the time combat aircraft can remain in the air, and involving landing ships and minesweepers, which he described as new patterns.

Why this matters: The situation highlights the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with Taiwan's National Security Bureau Director-General emphasizing the need for stability in the region. The potential for Chinese military drills following Lai's inauguration raises concerns about escalation and the impact on regional security.

Analysts interpret China's recent measures, including allowing tourists from Fujian to travel to the Matsu Islands and resuming access to China's market for some of Taiwan's agricultural and fishery products, as a move to put pressure on Lai ahead of his inaugural speech. China's actions are seen as an attempt to 'localize' the Taiwan Strait by asserting Taiwan as a province of China and to demonstrate its sincerity in improving cross-strait relations, especially after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China. However, China also sent 12 military aircraft across the median line of the Taiwan Strait on April 27, indicating a two-pronged strategy involving different chains of command in China's Taiwan Affairs Office and the People's Liberation Army.

Taiwan remains vigilant and is closely monitoring developments in the Taiwan Strait. Tsai Ming-yen warned that China is currently using a carrot-and-stick approach toward Taiwan, hoping to influence the incoming government's China policy. Despite the military tensions, China has also proposed a limited resumption of Chinese tourism to Taiwan, indicating a complex relationship between the two entities. As Tsai stated, "The period from June to November is when China typically holds its regular military drills, and Taiwan is concerned that China may use this as an excuse to carry out military exercises to further pressure Taiwan."

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan on high alert for potential Chinese military exercises after President-elect Lai's inauguration.
• China has increased military activities around Taiwan, including new tactics like nighttime patrols.
• Analysts interpret China's recent measures as an attempt to pressure Lai and assert Taiwan as a province.
• Taiwan remains vigilant, warning China may use regular military drills from June to November to pressure Taiwan.
• China has proposed a limited resumption of Chinese tourism to Taiwan, indicating a complex relationship.