Panama Canal Shipping Disrupted by El Niño-Driven Drought, Not Climate Change

The Panama Canal experienced significant shipping restrictions in 2023 due to historically low water levels caused by the El Niño climate phenomenon, not climate change, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution research consortium. The canal's water levels dropped by 26% below average last year, leading to restrictions on the size and number of vessels crossing the waterway and disrupting about 5% of global shipping.

The study found that the low rainfall in Panama was driven by El Niño, a naturally occurring warming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that changes weather patterns worldwide. El Niño doubled the likelihood of the low precipitation Panama received during the 2023 rainy season. This dryness reduced water levels in the reservoir that feeds freshwater to the Panama Canal and provides drinking water for more than half of Panama's population.

Why this matters: The disruptions to the Panama Canal operations highlight the vulnerability of critical global trade infrastructure to extreme weather events and natural climate cycles. As one of the world's most important shipping routes, any restrictions or closures at the Panama Canal can have far-reaching impacts on supply chains, trade, and the global economy.

Water management was also a factor in the shipping restrictions, as the canal's locks draw on a reservoir that authorities prioritized for human consumption over canal operations. Despite being one of the wettest places on Earth on average, the lake that allows the Panama Canal to function reached its lowest water level ever recorded at the start of the 2023-2024 dry season.

The study, which used over 140 years of rainfall records from 65 weather stations, concluded that human-caused climate change was not a primary driver of the unusually dry monsoon season. While the researchers expect the canal system to be fully recharged by the end of 2023 as El Niño ends and the rainy season arrives, they caution that the area's water worries could deepen in the coming decades as Panama's population grows and seaborne trade expands, potentially bringing even wider disruptions during future El Niño years.

Key Takeaways

• Panama Canal experienced shipping restrictions in 2023 due to low water levels from El Niño, not climate change.
• El Niño doubled the likelihood of low precipitation in Panama, reducing water levels in the canal's reservoir.
• Disruptions to the Panama Canal can have far-reaching impacts on global trade and the economy.
• Water management prioritized human consumption over canal operations, contributing to the low water levels.
• Future El Niño events could bring wider disruptions as Panama's population and trade grow.