Belarus Says Ukraine Peace Talks Meaningless Without Russia and Belarus

Belarus Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik has stated that Switzerland's initiative to convene Ukraine peace talks is meaningless without the participation of Moscow and Minsk. The statement comes as Ukraine prepares for potential negotiations with Russia, which Ukrainian Deputy Head of Defense Intelligence Maj Gen Vadym Skibitsky believes will likely be the final stage of the conflict.

Why this matters: The success of Ukraine peace talks has significant implications for global security and stability, as a resolution could prevent further escalation and humanitarian crises. A negotiated settlement could also set a precedent for resolving other conflicts and have a lasting impact on international relations.

Skibitsky predicts that peace talks could happen in late 2025, as he expects Russian arms production to plateau early the following year due to a shortage of engineers and supplies. Ukraine and its Western partners are racing to distribute weapons to Kyiv's soldiers to prevent Russia from seizing more territory. "Our problem is very simple: We have no weapons,"Skibitsky said.

Russia is planning a major offensive this summer, and Ukraine's forces are running low on manpower and ammunition. Skibitsky expects Russian counter-offensives in the northwestern regions of Kharkiv and Sumy. Ukraine's forces are also concerned about the potential fall of Chasiv Yar, a strategically important town near Bakhmut which Russia could soon capture.

A special Ukraine peace summit is scheduled to be held in Switzerland in June, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has hailed as the "first real chance to start restoring a just peace". However, Belarus Foreign Minister Aleinik's statement casts doubt on the effectiveness of the talks without the involvement of Russia and Belarus.

Any potential settlement would likely have to take into account the Kremlin's security concerns, including Ukraine's pledge to remain militarily neutral in the future. The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election could also impact the trajectory of the conflict, with a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. A source close to the Trump campaign stated, "He wants to stop the killing. That's the bumper sticker: Trump will stop the killing."

As the war in Ukraine continues, the international community remains focused on finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Belarus' stance on the Switzerland-led peace talks underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and the challenges in achieving a negotiated settlement acceptable to all parties involved.

Key Takeaways

• Belarus says Ukraine peace talks are meaningless without Russia and Minsk's participation.
• Ukraine prepares for potential negotiations with Russia, seen as the final stage of the conflict.
• Russia plans a major offensive this summer, while Ukraine's forces are running low on manpower and ammo.
• A Ukraine peace summit is scheduled for June in Switzerland, but Belarus' stance casts doubt on its effectiveness.
• A negotiated settlement would need to address the Kremlin's security concerns and Ukraine's military neutrality.