ANC Faces Losing Majority in 2024 South African Elections

The African National Congress (ANC), which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, is at risk of losing its parliamentary majority in the upcoming national and provincial elections on May 29, 2024. Opinion polls suggest the ANC may secure only 37% of the national vote, a significant decline from the 57.5% it won in the 2019 election.

Why this matters: The potential loss of the ANC's majority could lead to a significant shift in South Africa's political landscape, potentially altering the country's economic and social policies. This could have far-reaching implications for the country's development and its role in the global economy.

A recent poll by the Johannesburg-based Social Research Foundation (SRF) projects the Democratic Alliance (DA) to get 25%, ex-president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) 13%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 11%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) 5%. If the ANC fails to retain its majority, it may be forced to form a coalition government, likely with the EFF. However, this could pose problems for President Cyril Ramaphosa's more market-friendly arm of the ANC.

The DA, which joined seven smaller parties last year to form the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), may try to stitch together its own governing majority. However, internal disagreements and the party's struggle to shake off its reputation as a white liberal party could hinder its chances. Despite its weaknesses, the ANC remains a powerful brand with a long history, and its real opposition can only come from within, particularly from Zuma and the South African Communist Party.

The ANC's failure to address severe electricity shortages, infrastructure problems, crime, unemployment, and corruption has diminished its support base. Hendrik du Toit, CEO of Ninety One Ltd., South Africa's largest asset manager, has urged voters to hold the ANC accountable in the 2024 election, stating, "We face some very real challenges and we should be a little scared going into next year's election... But that's why 2024 is a moment for South Africans to express themselves on issues and to get those issues dealt with and hold their government to account."

The main battlegrounds in the election are expected to be Gauteng province, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Free State, with around 27 million voters participating. Despite the challenges, ANC veteran Nomvula Mokonyane remains defiant, declaring,"We will not go to war having accepted defeat. We are going to war to win. "The outcome of the 2024 South African elections will have significant implications for the country's future political landscape and the ANC's continued dominance.

Key Takeaways

• ANC may lose parliamentary majority in 2024 South African elections.
• Opinion polls suggest ANC may secure only 37% of national vote.
• Loss of majority could lead to significant shift in SA's political landscape.
• ANC may be forced to form coalition government, potentially with EFF.
• 2024 election outcome will have significant implications for SA's future.