Azerbaijan Expresses Concern Over Attempts to Divide South Caucasus

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has voiced concerns about efforts to draw new dividing lines in the South Caucasus region, following an unprecedented meeting in Brussels between the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The summit, held without Azerbaijan's participation, has raised fears in Baku that it could encourage Armenia to delay the peace process and build up its military capabilities with Western assistance.

While the Brussels meeting was expected to result in significant support for Armenia's European integration, the final communique was rather modest, pledging growing support for Armenia's democratic and economic resilience and providing limited financial aid. This led to mixed reactions in Armenia, with many expressing disappointment at the outcome.

Azerbaijan's frustration over the summit prompted calls from Western leaders to reassure Baku that the meeting had no anti-Azerbaijani elements. However, Azerbaijan maintains that its concerns are legitimate, given the fragile geopolitical balance in the region and the potential for Armenia's Western drift to provoke reactions from Russia and Iran.

Following the Brussels meeting, there have been some unexpected developments between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including border incidents and progress in the border demarcation process. This suggests that the Armenian Prime Minister may be attempting to navigate a delicate balance between nationalist narratives and the need for a peaceful resolution with Azerbaijan.

The article discusses two potential future scenarios for the South Caucasus region: one where it becomes an active battlefield for different actors, leading to fragmentation and division, and another where it serves as a bridge and platform for regional and global dialogue and cooperation. "The mandatory condition for this scenario is the launch of dialogue and cooperation between the three states of the region, based on adherence to international law, non-use of force, and respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty," the article emphasizes, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation for a secure and prosperous future.

Key Takeaways

• Aliyev voices concerns over efforts to divide South Caucasus after Brussels meeting.
• Brussels summit raised fears in Baku that it could delay Armenia's peace process.
• Azerbaijan maintains concerns are legitimate due to fragile regional geopolitical balance.
• Border incidents and progress in demarcation suggest Armenia navigating nationalist narratives.
• Dialogue, cooperation, and adherence to international law are crucial for regional stability.