AUDJPY Bearish Trend Predicted, Targeting 101.79 with 103.68 Stop Loss

AUDJPY currency pair expected to experience bearish trend targeting 101.79, despite overall long-term bullish trend. Reserve Bank of Australia's May 2024 monetary policy meeting may impact AUDJPY and AUDUSD currency pairs.

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Nitish Verma
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AUDJPY Bearish Trend Predicted, Targeting 101.79 with 103.68 Stop Loss

AUDJPY Bearish Trend Predicted, Targeting 101.79 with 103.68 Stop Loss

The AUDJPY currency pair is expected to experience abearish trend, with a target price of 101.79 and a stop loss at 103.68, according to Super Trend and Pivot Point HL indicators. The pair is currently in a descending channel but may break out and go up due to the overall bullish trend seen in long-term time frames like the 2-week and 1-month charts, which show AUDJPY at all-time highs.

Why this matters: The AUDJPY exchange rate has significant implications for international trade and investment between Australia and Japan, affecting the economies of both countries. A predicted bearish trend could influence investor decisions and impact the overall economic outlook for the region.

Key levels and zones to watch for the AUDJPY pair include a selling zone at 102.521, take profit levels at 102.000, 101.500, and 101.000, a resistance level in the 105 region, and a support level at 102.36 (1st support). The pivot point at 103.64 is acting as a pullback resistance. The 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 101.961 is also a resistance level, while the 62 retracement level at 102.36 is a support level.

Traders may consider selling the AUDJPY pair at the identified selling zone or resistance levels and setting take profit levels at strategic points to secure profits as the price declines. Setting a stop loss at 103.68 can help mitigate potential losses. Looking for a pullback to enter a long position could take advantage of the overall bullish trend.

Several factors can affect the AUDJPY exchange rate, including general economic indicators like employment, inflation data, retail sales, industrial production, trade balance, and GDP data from both Australia and Japan. Central bank decisions regarding interest rates in the two countries also play a key role. Political events, natural disasters, and government policies can impact the currency pair as well.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain a hawkish tone in its May 2024 monetary policy meeting, which could create upside risks for the Australian dollar. While the RBA is likely to leave the cash rate steady at 4.35%, there is a risk that their guidance could reintroduce the possibility of further rate hikes. Underlying inflation coming in higher than expected in the March quarter may lead the RBA to upgrade its trimmed mean inflation forecast for June 2024 to 3.8%.

The AUDUSD currency pair remains rangebound ahead of the RBA decision, facing resistance starting from 0.6642. A break and close above the March 8 high of 0.6668 could potentially lead to a run towards minor resistance at 0.6730 and the December 2023 peak of 0.6870. On the downside, dips below 0.6500 have been bought recently, making it a key level to watch.

In summary, while the AUDJPY pair is predicted to experience a bearish trend targeting 101.79, the overall long-term trend remains bullish. Traders should watch key levels, set appropriate stop losses, and consider the impact of upcoming RBA decisions and economic data on both the AUDJPY and AUDUSD currency pairs.