Biden and Trump Tied at 46% in New National Poll for 2024 Presidential Race

A new Quinnipiac University poll has found that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat for the 2024 presidential election. The poll, conducted from April 18-22 among 1,429 registered voters nationwide, shows Biden and Trump each garnering 46% support in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

Even when third-party candidates were included in the poll, Biden and Trump remained tied at 37% each. The survey also revealed that Trump holds a slight edge over Biden in favorability ratings, with 41% of respondents expressing a favorable view of the former president compared to 37% for the current president.

The Quinnipiac poll's findings are consistent with recent polling in key battleground states like North Carolina, where a separate survey showed Trump leading Biden by a narrow 48% to 46% margin. The Biden campaign has reportedly set its sights on flipping North Carolina in the upcoming election, after the state went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

Why this matters: The neck-and-neck polling numbers emphasize the intense competition and volatility anticipated in the 2024 presidential race. With both Biden and Trump commanding strong support from their respective bases, the election outcome may hinge on the ability to sway undecided voters and drive turnout in crucial swing states.

The poll results also highlight the stark demographic divides in candidate preferences. A majority of white voters (56%) back Trump, while most Black (77%) and Asian (59%) voters support Biden. Hispanic voters are more evenly split, with 52% favoring Biden. Younger voters under 30 lean heavily towards Biden (59%), while older age groups tend to prefer Trump. Education levels also play a role, with college-educated voters (57%) backing Biden and those without a degree (54%) supporting Trump.

Despite some voters switching allegiances, the poll indicates that both Biden and Trump have largely retained the support of their 2020 voters, with 91% of Biden's previous backers and 94% of Trump's still committed to their respective candidates. However, Democratic strategists caution that Biden needs to improve his standing on key issues like the economy and crime to secure victory in 2024.

The Quinnipiac University poll, which had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points, underscores the challenges facing both campaigns as they seek to energize their bases and persuade undecided voters in what is shaping up to be a fiercely contested presidential election. As one Democratic pollster noted, "This race is going to be a nail-biter. Every vote will count, and both candidates will need to bring their A-game to come out on top."

Key Takeaways

• Quinnipiac poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 46% in 2024 matchup.
• Trump holds slight edge over Biden in favorability ratings (41% vs. 37%).
• Biden and Trump retain strong support from their 2020 voter bases.
• Demographic divides persist, with white voters favoring Trump, minorities favoring Biden.
• Tight race expected, with both candidates needing to energize bases and sway undecided voters.