Violence Erupts in Chad as President Déby Seeks to Extend Family's 30-Year Rule

Chad is holding a presidential election on May 6, marking the end of a three-year political transition that began with the death of long-time President Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021. His son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby, who has been serving transitional president, is the clear favorite to win the election despite facing opposition from some quarters.

The election campaign has been marred by violence, with reports of militants from the Group for Concerted Action and Reflection (GCAP) being brutalized in the city of Abéché. The government has also banned a boycott campaign launched by civil society groups who have described the election as a "masquerade designed to perpetuate a dynastic dictatorship."

Why this matters: The outcome of this election will have significant implications for the future of democracy and stability in Chad, a country that has been plagued by authoritarian rule and conflict. The perpetuation of a dynastic dictatorship could lead to further unrest and undermine regional security.

Déby, 40, took power in April 2021 after his father was killed on the battlefield while leading troops against rebels. He initially pledged to move to civilian rule after an 18-month transition but later extended the period and announced his candidacy for president. "We expect to win, maybe very big," said Déby, expressing confidence in his chances of victory.

The president faces no strong opponent apart from Succès Masra, head of the Les Transformateurs party, who has lost popularity after accepting the post of prime minister in January. Other candidates in the race include former prime minister Albert Pahimi Padacké and Higher Education Minister Lydie Beassemda, the only woman vying for the presidency.

The election has characteristics similar to previous contests in 2011, 2016, and 2021, with the urban opposition having little support in rural areas where 76% of Chadians live. Post-election protests are possible, but the threat of police repression could dissuade many people from taking to the streets.

The political transition began in April 2021 after the death of President Idriss Déby Itno, with a group of generals appointing Mahamat Déby to head a Transitional Military Council. The transition was initially scheduled to last 18 months but has gone on for more than three years. The African Union did not sanction N'Djamena for the unconstitutional change of power, arguing that Chad had made a significant contribution to fighting terrorism.

The new electoral code adopted in February has raised concerns about the transparency and fairness of the election. It abolishes the National Election Management Agency's obligation to post results at each polling station, making it difficult for observers to verify results. The Constitutional Council, which validates candidacies and results, is headed by a former executive of Déby's party and offers little guarantee of independence.

The Council rejected ten candidacies, including those of two prominent opposition figures, Ahmat Hassaballah Soubiane and Nassour Koursami, sparking accusations of bias. The opposition has pointed out that all ten rejected candidates were from the north and center of the country, which are Mahamat Déby's electoral strongholds.

With the odds stacked in his favor, Déby looks set to extend his family's three-decade rule over the central African nation. However, the question remains whether the election will be seen as credible and legitimate by the Chadian people and the international community. As one civil society group put it, the election is a "masquerade designed to perpetuate a dynastic dictatorship."

Key Takeaways

• Chad holds presidential election on May 6, ending 3-year transition.
• General Mahamat Idriss Déby, son of late president, is clear favorite to win.
• Election campaign marred by violence and opposition boycott.
• Outcome will impact democracy and stability in Chad and region.
• New electoral code raises concerns about transparency and fairness.