South Africa's ANC Faces Potential Power-Sharing as Poor Governance Pushes Country into Uncharted Territory

South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) party is facing the prospect of power-sharing for the first time since the end of apartheid nearly three decades ago. The party's poor governance record has pushed the country into uncharted political territory ahead of the crucial 2024 national and provincial elections.

The ANC's electoral dominance is under threat due to widespread corruption, high unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, and a failure to fulfill key campaign promises. In the Free State province, home to the city of Mangaung, the ANC's misrule has been particularly evident. The province has the third-highest unemployment rate in the country, with over 92% of residents too poor to be registered taxpayers. Mangaung, the judicial capital of South Africa, has become known for its uncollected refuse, dry taps, and constant load shedding due to infrastructure collapse.

Why this matters: The potential loss of the ANC's parliamentary majority and the need for power-sharing arrangements could significantly reshape South Africa's political landscape. The outcome of the 2024 elections will have far-reaching implications for the country's future governance, economic stability, and efforts to address pressing social issues.

The ANC has expressed confidence that it will retain power and continue to govern the country, but internal polling suggests otherwise. In Gauteng, South Africa's most populous province, opposition parties like the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) are confident they can form a coalition government, as no single party is expected to gain an absolute majority.

Experts suggest that an ANC coalition with populist factions, such as the MKP and EFF, would be a disastrous path for the country. Much will depend on whether President Cyril Ramaphosa has the courage to remain in power and make a final effort to save South Africa. If Ramaphosa stays, a promising multiracial alliance for change could emerge in the form of an ANC-IFP-DA coalition, which would have an almost two-thirds majority.

The public sector is seen as the source of most of the country's problems, and the DA's involvement in a coalition government would be crucial in addressing these issues and driving necessary reforms. However, the DA would face challenges in such a coalition, including the need to provide a significant number of ministers and deputy ministers, which could strip its parliamentary, provincial, and municipal parties of talent.

Key Takeaways

• ANC's dominance under threat due to corruption, unemployment, infrastructure decay
• ANC may lose parliamentary majority, power-sharing likely in 2024 elections
• Potential ANC coalition with populist factions seen as disastrous for SA
• DA's involvement in coalition crucial to address public sector issues
• Lack of absolute majority opens door for coalition government in Gauteng