Study: Millions of Non-Citizens Illegally Registered to Vote in US

A new study by Just Facts estimates 10-27% of non-citizen adults in the US are illegally registered to vote, translating to 2-5 million individuals. The study's findings are based on an enhanced methodology used in a 2014 Electoral Studies paper, which estimated 25.1% of non-citizens were illegally registered to vote.

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Nitish Verma
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Study: Millions of Non-Citizens Illegally Registered to Vote in US

Study: Millions of Non-Citizens Illegally Registered to Vote in US

A new study by Just Facts has found that approximately 10-27% of non-citizen adults in the US are illegally registered to vote, which translates to around 2-5 million individuals. This figure is potentially high enough to influence the outcome of major elections, including congressional seats and the presidency.

Why this matters: The integrity of US elections is at stake, as millions of illegal votes could sway the outcome of close races. This issue has far-reaching implications for the country's political landscape and the democratic process as a whole.

The study builds upon a 2014 study published in the academic journal Electoral Studies, which estimated that 25.1% of non-citizens were illegally registered to vote. Just Facts engaged in extensive correspondence with the lead author of the study to verify the details and then conducted a comparable study using the same datasets and a more straightforward methodology. This found that roughly 27% of non-citizens were registered to vote, and about 16% of them voted in the 2008 national elections.

The Washington Post's lead fact-checker, Glenn Kessler, has attempted to dispute the results of the 2014 Electoral Studies paper and Just Facts research, citing a previously sealed Expert Report on non-citizen voting for a 2023 Arizona court case. However, Just Facts has scrutinized the methodologies used and found that Kessler's claims are based on lowball estimates and misleading information.

The study estimates that 10-27% of non-citizen adults in the US are illegally registered to vote, which could lead to 2-5 million illegal votes. In presidential elections, roughly half of non-citizens who are registered turn out to vote. Critics argue that if Joe Biden were to win the 2024 presidential election, it could lead to 30-50 million new Democratic Party voters from illegal immigrants, potentially turning red states blue and transforming America into a "banana republic."

The study uses an enhanced version of the methodology that yielded the same best registration rate as the 2014 Electoral Studies paper. Limitations include uncertainties in the results due to small sample sizes and possible sources of error, as well as the assumption that all people who claim to be citizens in the survey actually are citizens.

The findings of this study have significant implications for the integrity of US elections. With millions of non-citizens potentially registered to vote illegally, the outcome of close races could be swayed by unlawful votes. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the issue of non-citizen voting is likely to remain a contentious and closely watched topic.

Key Takeaways

  • 10-27% of non-citizen adults in the US are illegally registered to vote.
  • This translates to around 2-5 million individuals, potentially influencing election outcomes.
  • Non-citizen voting could sway close races, including congressional seats and the presidency.
  • Critics argue that illegal immigrant voters could turn red states blue in the 2024 election.
  • The study's findings have significant implications for the integrity of US elections.