Escalating Conflict in Mali Amid Separatist and Insurgent Threats as UN Forces Withdraw

The conflict in Mali has escalated in recent months, with separatist groups, Islamist insurgents, and the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping forces contributing to a deteriorating security situation in the West African nation. The separatist group Mouvement pour l'Autonomie de l'Azawad (MAA) has been fighting the Malian government for greater autonomy in northern Mali, while Islamist insurgent groups like Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have carried out attacks against Malian and international forces.

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has been withdrawing its forces from the country, leaving a security vacuum that the Malian military and other international forces are struggling to fill. The withdrawal of UN forces has raised concerns about the ability to maintain stability and security in Mali, as the Malian military and other international forces may not be able to effectively counter the threat from separatists and insurgents.

Why this matters: The escalating conflict in Mali threatens regional stability and security, with the potential for spillover effects into neighboring countries. The withdrawal of UN forces and the growing threat from separatist and insurgent groups highlight the challenges of maintaining peace and stability in the Sahel region.

The conflict in Mali is part of a broader trend of instability in the Sahel region, with military coups and the departure of foreign troops contributing to a rise in violence and militant activity. The African continent now accounts for almost half of terrorist acts worldwide, with the central Sahel region accounting for about 25% of such attacks, according to UN counter-terrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov. Voronkov warned that if this trend persists, a vast area of instability may emerge from Mali to the borders of Nigeria.

The escalating food insecurity crisis in Central and West Africa has further compounded the challenges in Mali, with around 55 million people facing the risk of hunger between June and August 2024. The Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) attributes this dire situation to economic challenges such as currency devaluations, inflation, stagnating production, and trade barriers, which have severely limited people's access to food. The crisis is particularly alarming in Mali, where around 2,600 individuals are expected to face famine conditions, especially in the northern part of the country, which has been plagued by ongoing conflicts since August 2023.

The military juntas of Mali and Niger have finalized a partnership agreement for the sale of 150 million liters of diesel from Niger to Mali, which will supply the country's power plants and contribute to Mali's energy security. The agreement is seen as an important step in strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries and is part of the dynamics of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a military and diplomatic initiative formed by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to guarantee independence from regional or international bodies.

The progressive distancing of the Sahel countries from the Western orbit has led to their announcement of an 'irrevocable' intention to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) starting from 2025, triggering concerns within the bloc. The EU's decision to halt cooperation with Niger's new rulers has also raised fears over threats to regional security, uncontrolled migration flows, and more drownings in the Mediterranean.

In the face of the ongoing conflict in Mali, the international community confronts significant challenges in addressing the complex web of security, humanitarian, and political issues in the region. The withdrawal of UN forces, the growing threat from separatist and insurgent groups, and the escalating food insecurity crisis highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated response to the crisis in Mali and the broader Sahel region.

Key Takeaways

• Conflict in Mali escalates with separatists, Islamist insurgents, UN force withdrawal.
• Withdrawal of UN forces raises concerns about stability as Malian military struggles.
• Instability in Mali threatens regional security, with potential for spillover effects.
• Escalating food insecurity crisis compounds challenges, with 55M facing hunger risk.
• Sahel countries distance from West, announce ECOWAS withdrawal, raising regional concerns.