Severe Storms Forecast for Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is predicted for Monday, May 13, 2024, in central and east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to bring large hail, damaging gusts, and a low tornado threat, with a chance of severe weather continuing through the week.

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Nitish Verma
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Severe Storms Forecast for Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley

Severe Storms Forecast for Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley

A weather forecast predicts a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday, May 13, 2024, from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Plains to northeast Mexico will bring strong mid-level flow to the region.

A cold front will move eastward through central and east Texas during the day, and through Louisiana overnight. A very moist airmass will be in place, with low-level moisture expected to destabilize quickly, leading to thunderstorms. Dewpoints will be in the low 70s, and temperatures will range from 72-80°F for highs and 57-62°F for lows.

Why this matters: Severe weather events can have a significant impact on daily life, causing disruptions to transportation, commerce, and public safety. Accurate forecasting and timely warnings are crucial in mitigating the effects of such events and protecting communities.

Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. The tornado threat will be low, except near the warm front, where isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two are possible. The warm front will extend from northeast Texas eastward into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, and farther east into southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front in the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, with a chance of severe thunderstorms, large hail, and damaging gusts. In northern Illinois and southern Lower Michigan, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward-progressing cold front during the late afternoon, but the overall severe potential will be low due to weak vertical shear.

The weather pattern for the week of May 12-17, 2024 will be active in terms of periods of rain, with two 24-hour periods of little to no rain. A slow-moving upper-level trough will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday and Tuesday. The main area of deep moisture and atmospheric lifting will build into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Tuesday, leading to a chance of stronger thunderstorms.

The upper-level low-pressure system will move slowly, leading to a chance of showers continuing through Wednesday. A return to drier air and mostly sunny skies is expected by Thursday, but another slow-moving storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area on Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, ranging from the lower to middle 60s throughout the week, while high temperatures will be mainly limited to the 70s, with the exception of Thursday, when highs will reach the lower 80s.

Key Takeaways

  • Slight risk of severe thunderstorms on May 13, 2024, in central/east Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley.
  • Large hail and damaging gusts expected, with low tornado threat.
  • Thunderstorms to develop along cold front in Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast.
  • Active weather pattern expected May 12-17, with periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms.
  • Drier air and sunny skies expected by Thursday, with another storm system arriving Friday.