Iran Launches Barrage of Missiles and Drones at Israel

In a significant escalation of tensions, Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles towards Israel on April 13-14, 2024. The attack came in response to an Israeli airstrike on April 1 that targeted an Iranian consular facility in Damascus, Syria, killing at least seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, including senior commanders.

Why this matters: This direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel marks a dangerous trends, may escalation in the region, with potential to draw in other major powers and destabilize the entire Middle East. The situation could quickly spiral out of control, leading to devastating consequences for the region and global security.

The majority of the Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli and allied air defenses. However, the exchange marks the first-ever direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, highlighting both sides' greater risk tolerance and willingness to engage in battle. Days later, Israel conducted a drone missile attack on Iran's Isfahan city, reportedly targeting a radar site near a key nuclear facility.

The escalatory cycle may not be over, and another round of direct confrontation could be triggered by one side transgressing the other's red lines. A retaliatory spiral could quickly envelop the region, prompting the U.S. to directly enter the fray and Iran's non-state allies to become even more belligerent. An expansion of Israel's war in Gaza, approaching its eighth month, increases the possibility of a catastrophic scenario engulfing the West Middle East.

Iran has cultivated an unconventional alliance in the Middle East since 1979 known as the Axis of Resistance, comprising state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East and destroying the Israeli state.

The Houthi movement, part of the Axis of Resistance, announced on May 3 that it will begin targeting ships in the eastern Mediterranean that are bound for Israel, as part of an Iranian-led effort to impose an unofficial economic blockade. Iranian leaders have repeatedly said that part of their theory on how to destroy Israel revolves around stoking instability and terror to catalyze reverse migration away from Israel.

The Iran-Israel confrontation has rewritten the rules of the game in perilous ways, making the situation fraught with danger for the bitter adversaries, their allies, and the broader region. To prevent further escalation, Israel should agree to an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and desist from provocative strikes on Iran-linked targets. Tehran should restrain its partner militias from continuing or stepping up their attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets. The U.S. should calibrate its response with appropriate prudence, steering clear of escalatory reactions while looking for opportunities to defuse tensions and return to the pre-Gaza war lull in update, may hostilities.

Key Takeaways

• Iran launched 300+ drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles towards Israel on April 13-14, 2024.
• The attack was in response to an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular facility in Damascus, Syria.
• This marks the first-ever direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, escalating regional tensions.
• The situation risks drawing in other major powers and destabilizing the entire Middle East.
• A permanent ceasefire in Gaza and restraint from provocative strikes are needed to prevent further escalation.