Israel-Gaza Conflict Impacts Global Air Travel as Flights Suspended

The October 2023 Israel-Gaza conflict has had far-reaching consequences for the aviation industry and economies of affected countries. Airlines have suspended hundreds of flights to Tel Aviv, Lebanon, and Jordan due to weak demand following themiddle, eastconflict. This has contributed to a decline in global air travel, with yields decreasing by6.9% in the first quarter of 2024.

Why this matters: The suspension of flights and decline in air travel demand have significant economic implications for the affected countries, potentially leading to job losses and revenue declines. Moreover, the conflict's impact on global air travel could have a ripple effect on the entire industry, influencing travel patterns and economic growth worldwide.

Air France KLM CEO Ben Smith expressed cautious optimism that demand for Tel Aviv and Beirut flights will recover, but noted that bookings to southern Egypt and Jordan remain low. "We are cautiously optimistic that Tel Aviv and Beirut will come back to the levels that they were at prior to October. It's a bit different in the leisure markets of Southern Egypt and in Jordan, which are still not back, not close to where we were before October," Smith said.

To mitigate the impact, Air France KLM has redeployed a significant portion of its capacity to North Africa, particularly Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, where its low-cost unit Transavia has seen opportunities. "We redeployed a big portion of that capacity to other markets. And luckily, for (low-cost unit) Transavia, we have a lot of opportunity in the Northern African countries of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. So, that's at least been able to maintain our forecast for Transavia," Smith explained.

The conflict has also led to an uptick in violence in the West Bank, prompting Israel to tighten border security and hinder unrestricted travel. The US government acknowledged that many flights are leaving Tel Aviv half empty, but is working to help Americans in the West Bank affected by border restrictions travel to Jordan over land. Erin Heeter, a spokeswoman for the US Department of Homeland Security, said: "US government officials are working with the government of Israel to address reports of Americans facing issues in traveling to and flying out of Ben Gurion Airport."

In September 2023, a deal was signed between Tel Aviv and Washington introducing visa-free travel between the US and Israel. However, the policy reversal following the conflict has been criticized. "The policy reversal was yet another example of why Israel does not belong in this program," said Maya Berry, executive director of the Arab American Institute. Palestinian American Fidah Mousa added, "Of course, everybody got excited about this new regulation allowing us to go through Ben Gurion because of our citizenship. Deep down, I didn't think it was going to last."

The Gaza conflict has also triggered acute food shortages and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with the UN World Food Program declaring that northern Gaza is now in full-blown famine. The US Agency for International Development is working on establishing a new US-led sea route to bring in more food aid, including treatment for hundreds of thousands of starving children, by early or mid-May 2024.

The October 2023 Israel-Gaza conflict has had significant impacts on global air travel demand, regional economies, and the humanitarian situation in Gaza. While some airlines remain cautiously optimistic about a recovery in demand, the effects of the conflict continue to be felt across the aviation industry and beyond. The US government is working to address travel disruptions for its citizens and provide critical aid to those affected by the crisis in Gaza.

Key Takeaways

• Airlines suspend hundreds of flights to Tel Aviv, Lebanon, and Jordan due to weak demand.
• Global air travel declines by 6.9% in Q1 2024, with significant economic implications.
• Air France KLM redeployed capacity to North Africa to mitigate impact.
• Conflict leads to tightened border security, hindering unrestricted travel in West Bank.
• Humanitarian crisis in Gaza triggers acute food shortages and famine.