744 Japanese Municipalities at Risk of Disappearing by 2050 Due to Declining Young Female Population

A recent report by private-sector experts in Japan has revealed that 744 municipalities across the country are at risk of disappearing by 2050 due to a sharp decline in the population of young women. The study, chaired by Akio Mimura, former chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, found that the number of women aged 20 to 39, considered the core childbearing age group, is projected to fall by half or more in these cities, towns, and villages between 2020 and 2050.

The Tohoku region in northeastern Japan is the most affected, with 165 municipalities deemed at risk. In contrast, the Kyushu-Okinawa region in the southwest has the fewest vulnerable localities at 76. The report highlights the severe impact of Japan's chronically low birthrate on the sustainability of its local communities.

Why this matters: The potential disappearance of nearly half of Japan's municipalities by 2050 underscores the urgent need to address the country's demographic crisis. The decline in the young female population not only threatens the survival of local communities but also has far-reaching implications for Japan's economy and society as a whole.

The study also identified 65 municipalities that are likely to remain independently sustainable, with their young female populations expected to stay around 50% of current levels. However, the report emphasizes that previous efforts to revitalize local communities have focused on addressing population outflows rather than tackling the underlying issue of declining birth rates.

"The number of births remains on a downward trajectory," the report noted, calling for measures to improve the birth rate to address the natural population decline.

While the latest projection shows progress compared to a similar study in 2014, which estimated that 896 municipalities would see their young female populations decline by more than half by 2040, the panel pointed out that an increase in foreign residents contributed to the improvement. The trend of a falling birthrate in Japan has not changed.

The panel urged local authorities in the 744 at-risk municipalities and the central government to take measures to enhance the birthrate and prevent the outflow of people. The report serves as a sobering reminder of the demographic challenges facing Japan and the need for comprehensive strategies to ensure the sustainability of its communities.

Key Takeaways

• 744 municipalities in Japan risk disappearing by 2050 due to declining young women.
• Tohoku region most affected, with 165 municipalities at risk of disappearing.
• Decline in young female population threatens local communities and Japan's economy.
• 65 municipalities likely to remain sustainable, but overall birthrate decline continues.
• Urgent need for measures to address Japan's demographic crisis and prevent depopulation.